What is Minimum Viable Signal (MVS)?

Minimum Viable Signal is a Bayesian readiness framework that scores each campaign from 0–100% on whether it has accumulated enough statistically significant conversion data to be scaled safely.

Why it matters

The two classic Google Ads mistakes are premature pausing ("it's not working yet") and premature scaling ("it's working, triple the budget") — both amplify noise instead of signal. MVS replaces gut feel with a confidence interval.

How ClickCatalyst detects it

MVS computes a Readiness Score per campaign using a Bayesian confidence interval over its conversion history. Above 95% readiness, the campaign has reached statistical significance and can be scaled safely. Below 70%, it is still in Exploration — scaling amplifies noise, and cutting kills a campaign that never got a fair test.

The same staging protects budget decisions elsewhere: the Spend Concentration audit's Maturity Rebalance Guard uses learning-stage protection to stop you from cutting campaigns that are still earning their statistical footing.

Readiness Score (0–100%) via Bayesian confidence interval

  ≥ 95% → statistically significant — safe to scale
  70–95% → accumulating signal — hold
  < 70% → Exploration — do not scale or cut on performance

Example

A campaign with 12 conversions and a 68% Readiness Score is not "underperforming" — it is statistically unproven. MVS says hold, not kill.