Unit Economics Workbench

CAC & Profitability Modeling

Why CAC Without LTV is Useless

Your CAC is $150. Good or bad?

Impossible to say without knowing LTV.

If LTV is $500, that's a 3.3:1 ratio—excellent. Scale aggressively.

If LTV is $120, you're losing $30 on every customer. The more you sell, the more you lose.

Most advertisers focus exclusively on CPA (Cost Per Acquisition) without connecting it to the business economics behind the number.

The Unit Economics Workbench forces you to model both sides: What does it cost to acquire a customer (CAC) AND what is that customer worth over time (LTV)?

This transforms PPC optimization from "get cheaper clicks" to "acquire customers profitably."

1. Calculating True CAC

CPA ≠ CAC. Most advertisers confuse these.

CPA (Cost Per Acquisition):

Ad Spend / Conversions

Scenario Lab

Live Case Study

"$10,000 / 100 = $100 CPA"

True CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost):

(Ad Spend + Marketing Salaries + Agency Fees + Software Tools) / New Customers Acquired

Scenario Lab

Live Case Study

"($10,000 + $5,000 + $3,000 + $2,000) / 100 = $200 CAC"

The gap matters. Your CPA looks great at $100, but your True CAC is $200 when you include the full marketing cost stack.

The Workbench lets you:

Input all marketing costs (ad spend, team, tools, agency)

Calculate Blended CAC across all channels

Segment CAC by channel (Search CAC vs Display CAC vs Social CAC)

Track CAC trends month-over-month

Channel CAC Comparison:

Often reveals that Paid Search has $80 CAC while Display has $340 CAC. Without segmentation, your blended $150 CAC hides this disparity.

2. The LTV Estimation Model

The problem: Calculating true LTV requires tracking customers over 12-24+ months. Most businesses don't have this data yet.

The LTV Proxy approach:

LTV Proxy = AOV × Avg Orders per Customer (90 days) × Estimated Lifetime in Quarters

Example:

AOV: $75

Avg Orders in First 90 Days: 1.8

Estimated Lifetime: 6 quarters (18 months)

LTV Proxy = $75 × 1.8 × 6 = $810

This isn't perfect, but it's directional enough for budget decisions.

As your business matures, replace the proxy with actual cohort retention curves from your CRM or GA4.

Churn/Return Rate Adjustment:

In Settings, input your estimated annual churn rate (subscriptions) or return/refund rate (e-commerce). The model adjusts LTV accordingly. 20% annual churn reduces effective LTV by ~35% over a 3-year horizon.

What-If Analysis Mode:

Adjust AOV, repeat purchase rate, or margin percentages to model scenarios:

"If we raise prices by 15%, we can afford CAC up to $X"

"If churn drops from 20% to 12%, LTV jumps by Y%"

"If we increase repeat purchase rate by 10%, Max Tolerable CAC increases by Z%"

3. The Breakeven Thermometer

Visual: Gauge showing Current CAC as a percentage of Max Tolerable CAC.

Formula:

Max Tolerable CAC = LTV × (1 - Target Margin %)

Example:

LTV: $810

Target Margin: 30%

Max Tolerable CAC = $810 × 0.70 = $567

If your current CAC is $200, that's 35% of Max Tolerable → Green zone.

Color zones:

🟢 Green (0-60%): Significant room to scale aggressively.

🟡 Yellow (60-90%): Room to scale, but cautiously. Monitor efficiency.

🔴 Red (90-110%+): At or above ceiling. Optimize or pause.

The Thermometer updates in real-time as you adjust LTV assumptions, margin targets, or input new cost data.

4. Cohort Analysis

What it shows: CAC and LTV broken down by monthly acquisition cohort.

Why it matters: Your blended CAC might be stable every month. But are you acquiring the same quality of customers?

Example:

CohortCAC90-Day RevenueLTV ProxyLTV:CAC
Jan$120$210$8407.0:1 ✅
Feb$135$185$7205.3:1 ✅
Mar$160$140$5603.5:1 🟡
Apr$180$95$3802.1:1 🔴

The trend tells the story: CAC is rising while customer quality is declining. By April, you're barely above the 2:1 minimum threshold.

Possible causes: Audience saturation (exhausted best prospects), Creative fatigue (same ads, lower quality clicks), Competitor activity (raising auction prices), Seasonal shift (off-peak customers have lower intent).

Action: If LTV:CAC drops below 3:1 for two consecutive months, investigate immediately.

5. Payback Period Calculator

What it calculates: How many months until a customer generates enough gross profit to cover their acquisition cost.

Formula:

Payback Period = CAC / (Monthly Revenue per Customer × Gross Margin %)

Example:

CAC: $200

Monthly Revenue per Customer: $75

Gross Margin: 60%

Monthly Gross Profit: $75 × 0.60 = $45

Payback Period: $200 / $45 = 4.4 months

Interpretation:

<3 months: Excellent. Reinvest profits quickly.

3-6 months: Good. Standard for most SaaS and e-commerce.

6-12 months: Acceptable for high-LTV businesses (enterprise SaaS, luxury goods).

>12 months: Risky. You need significant cash reserves.

Why this matters for PPC: If your payback period is 8 months but you only have 3 months of cash runway, you can't afford aggressive scaling even if LTV:CAC is 5:1. The math works long-term, but cash flow kills you short-term.

The calculator visualizes a month-by-month waterfall showing cumulative profit per customer vs CAC.

When to Use This Dashboard (vs. Other Tools)

Use Unit Economics when you want to:

Connect ad performance to business profitability

Calculate Max Tolerable CAC for budget planning

Track customer quality over time (cohort analysis)

Model scenarios (pricing changes, churn improvements)

Justify PPC budgets to finance teams

Don't use Unit Economics when you want to:

Optimize daily campaign performance (use PCC)

Reallocate budgets between campaigns (use Budget Balancer)

Find wasted search terms (use Search Hygiene)

Who Should Use This:

✅ Founders and CFOs (business-level PPC decisions)

✅ Growth leads (scaling strategy)

✅ Agency strategists (proving ROI beyond ROAS)

❌ PPC practitioners (too strategic for daily work)

How Often: Quarterly for full review. Monthly glance at Thermometer and Cohort trends.

Technical FAQ

Q: What's a 'good' LTV:CAC ratio?

The gold standard is 3:1 (LTV is 3× CAC). Below 2:1 and you're not leaving enough margin. Above 5:1 and you're probably under-investing in growth.

Q: How do I account for churn/return rate in LTV?

In LTV Model Settings, input your estimated annual churn rate (subscriptions) or return/refund rate (e-commerce). 20% annual churn reduces effective LTV by ~35% over a 3-year horizon.

Q: Should I calculate CAC for first-time customers only?

For subscription/SaaS, yes—CAC is a customer acquisition metric. For e-commerce with high repeat rates, track both 'New Customer CAC' and 'Blended CAC' separately.

Q: Can I model different pricing scenarios?

Yes. What-If Analysis mode lets you adjust AOV, repeat purchase rate, or margin percentages to see how changes affect Max Tolerable CAC.

Q: Why is my payback period increasing even though ROAS is stable?

ROAS measures immediate return on ad spend. Payback period factors in the full cost stack and gross margins. If your cost stack grew or margins shrank, payback lengthens even with stable ROAS.

Q: How often should I update the LTV model?

Quarterly for the proxy model. When you accumulate 12+ months of real customer data, switch to actual cohort retention curves and update monthly.

Q: What if I'm a new business with no historical LTV data?

Use industry benchmarks as starting assumptions: SaaS typically sees 24-36 month customer lifetimes, e-commerce 12-18 months. Refine as you collect actual data. The proxy model is designed for exactly this situation.

Q: Does this work for lead-gen businesses (not direct sales)?

Yes, but replace AOV with 'Average Revenue per Qualified Lead' and use your sales team's close rate to estimate Customer LTV. CAC should include both marketing and sales costs.

Unit Economics Workbench | ClickCatalyst